Lausanne vs FC Thun – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Thun at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs FC Thun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Thun make the trip to Stade de la Tuiliere to face Lausanne in Super League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lausanne have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lausanne have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade de la Tuiliere, Lausanne have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Thun's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Thun have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Thun's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Lausanne against 0.80 for FC Thun. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lausanne register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, FC Thun in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lausanne, 2 for FC Thun and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lausanne — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Thun — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 65% and FC Thun 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 67% | FC Thun 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.88 xG and FC Thun 2.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.884 / defence 1.058 | FC Thun attack 1.327 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.859 / away 1.698. FC Thun have an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — the away xG of 2.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Lausanne games / 38 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 31% | Draw 20% | FC Thun 49%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 3.23 | Draw 5.00 | FC Thun 2.04. FC Thun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.27. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.27 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 2.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Thun are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 80% | FC Thun 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade de la Tuiliere • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 31% | Draw 20% | FC Thun 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 77% | xG Lausanne 1.88 / FC Thun 2.39 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.884 / def 1.058 | FC Thun attack 1.327 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.859 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
2.39
FC Thun xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Thun kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Thun is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Stade de la Tuiliere.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Thun part of?
Lausanne vs FC Thun is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 31% chance of winning, FC Thun a 49% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Lausanne and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Thun?
Record (4 meetings): Lausanne 1W | Draws 1 | FC Thun 2W.
What form are Lausanne and FC Thun in?
Lausanne (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. FC Thun (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lausanne's attack rating (0.88) and FC Thun's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Thun's attack (1.33x) against Lausanne's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 2.39.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.1%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
31%
3.26
20%
5.04
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Lausanne xG
Total xG
4.27
2.39
FC Thun xG
3.26
31%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.37
Clean Sheet
9%
10.87
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
3%
35.45
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Lausanne and 2.39 for FC Thun, a combined total of 4.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Lausanne have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 11W 12D 20L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lausanne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Thun's form line: 26W 4D 13L from 43 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for FC Thun, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Thun are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.05 PPG from 21 outings (5W 7D 9L).
On the road, FC Thun have gone 13W 1D 7L from 21 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lausanne are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 2.07 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; FC Thun in 70%.
Last 43 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Early Season
FC Thun
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Thun in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 11W 12D 20L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 26W 4D 13L in their last 43 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Thun away?
FC Thun's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.05 PPG; FC Thun away: 1.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Thun won 5-1 on 12 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lausanne
1
Draws
2
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Thun?
From 4 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 1, FC Thun have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when FC Thun 0-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Thun?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Lausanne, 71% for FC Thun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Lausanne and 76% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Thun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Lausanne's games and 71% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Lausanne's matches and 76% of FC Thun's.
Do Lausanne and FC Thun tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.