Lausanne 3-0 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lausanne face FC Basel 1893.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lausanne welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stade de la Tuilière in Super League (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lausanne have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Lausanne have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Basel 1893 stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Basel 1893 away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lausanne 0.90 PPG, FC Basel 1893 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Lausanne's last 5 home games and FC Basel 1893's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
FC Basel 1893 in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 91% and FC Basel 1893 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 82% | FC Basel 1893 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.79 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.887 / defence 1.203 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.978 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.291. FC Basel 1893's defence rating of 1.260 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lausanne's projected output up. Lausanne's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Basel 1893's projected output up. Data: built from Lausanne's last 11 games and FC Basel 1893's last 46.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 42% | Draw 27% | FC Basel 1893 31%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.36 | Draw 3.74 | FC Basel 1893 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.79 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lausanne are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lausanne's last 5 home games and FC Basel 1893's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lausanne 80% (last 5 home games) | FC Basel 1893 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, matchday 12 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 42% | Draw 27% | FC Basel 1893 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Lausanne 1.79 / FC Basel 1893 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.887 / def 1.203 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.978 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.52
FC Basel 1893 xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 13:15 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne 3 - 0 FC Basel 1893.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 is a Super League fixture (matchday 12) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 42% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lausanne's attack rating (0.89) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 11 games and FC Basel 1893's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.74
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.31
1.52
FC Basel 1893 xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
5%
19.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.52 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Lausanne have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 2W 3D 6L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
FC Basel 1893's form line: 2W 2D 7L from 11 games, 0.73 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 0.82 PPG, FC Basel 1893 on 0.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 4 home games (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, FC Basel 1893 have gone 0W 0D 4L from their last 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Basel 1893's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.45 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 91% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 73%.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
Lausanne (Home) vs FC Basel 1893 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
Lausanne's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won Lausanne 5-1 FC Basel 1893.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
4
Draws
2
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lausanne at 75%, FC Basel 1893 at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Lausanne and 100% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Lausanne's games and 75% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Lausanne's matches and 100% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Lausanne's recent matches and 100% of FC Basel 1893's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lausanne run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Basel 1893.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat FC Basel 1893 3-0 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.79 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.52 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Basel 1893 landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.89 / defence 1.20 against FC Basel 1893 attack 0.98 / defence 1.26, drawn from 11/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 42% | Draw 27% | FC Basel 1893 31%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 82% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 82%, FC Basel 1893 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 82%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 91% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 0.82 PPG, FC Basel 1893 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.