FC ST. Gallen 1-0 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 14 as FC ST. Gallen welcome Lausanne to Kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's home record at Kybunpark: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lausanne — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (FC ST. Gallen) versus 1.30 (Lausanne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: FC ST. Gallen have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 8 past contests while Lausanne have managed just 1 wins.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC ST. Gallen and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lausanne trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 64% and Lausanne 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 54% | Lausanne 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.66 xG and Lausanne 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.036 / defence 1.009 | Lausanne attack 0.935 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.862 / away 1.392. Data: 45 FC ST. Gallen games / 46 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 46% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 30%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Lausanne 3.33. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 50% | Lausanne 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 46% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.66 / Lausanne 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.036 / def 1.009 | Lausanne attack 0.935 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.862 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lausanne xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen 1 - 0 Lausanne.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 46% chance of winning, Lausanne a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
Record (8 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 6W | Draws 1 | Lausanne 1W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Lausanne (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.04x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
46%
2.19
24%
4.16
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
2.97
1.31
Lausanne xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
6%
17.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.31 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 20W 13D 17L from 50 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 18L across 50 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 1.46 PPG, Lausanne on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 12W 6D 6L from 24 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 4W 11D 9L across 24 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.68 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Lausanne in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 20W 13D 17L in their last 50 games (1.46 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 17W 15D 18L in their last 50 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Lausanne away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.75 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
1
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, Lausanne have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 62%, Lausanne 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (FC ST. Gallen) and 54% (Lausanne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 62% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 54% of Lausanne's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out Lausanne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Lausanne 1-0 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.66 xG and Lausanne 1.31 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lausanne landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Lausanne attack 0.94 / defence 0.86, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 46% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 30%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 54%, Lausanne 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Lausanne's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.46 PPG, Lausanne 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.