FC ST. Gallen 0-2 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC ST. Gallen (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC ST. Gallen face Lausanne.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 28 as FC ST. Gallen welcome Lausanne to kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 March 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's home record at kybunpark: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FC ST. Gallen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC ST. Gallen register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Lausanne in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: FC ST. Gallen have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 past contests while Lausanne have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 3–2 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC ST. Gallen and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lausanne trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC ST. Gallen 63% versus Lausanne 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 54% | Lausanne 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.00 xG and Lausanne 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.179 / defence 1.033 | Lausanne attack 1.090 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.182. Data: 60 FC ST. Gallen games / 60 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 23% | Lausanne 25%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Lausanne 4.00. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 90% | Lausanne 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 23% | Lausanne 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.00 / Lausanne 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.179 / def 1.033 | Lausanne attack 1.090 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Lausanne xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen 0 - 2 Lausanne.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 53% chance of winning, Lausanne a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
Record (6 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 5W | Draws 1 | Lausanne 0W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Lausanne (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.18x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.41
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.33
1.33
Lausanne xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
3%
29.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.33 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 26W 18D 21L from 65 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 25L across 65 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 1.48 PPG, Lausanne on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 17W 10D 5L from 32 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — FC ST. Gallen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lausanne's away record stands at 6W 10D 16L across 32 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.40 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 26W 18D 21L in their last 65 games (1.48 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 21W 19D 25L in their last 65 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Lausanne away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.91 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
1
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, Lausanne have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC ST. Gallen at 75%, Lausanne at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for FC ST. Gallen and 66% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 62% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 66% of Lausanne's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC ST. Gallen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat FC ST. Gallen 0-2 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.00 xG and Lausanne 1.33 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.18 / defence 1.03 against Lausanne attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 23% | Lausanne 25%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Lausanne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 54%, Lausanne 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Lausanne's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.48 PPG, Lausanne 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Lausanne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.