FC ST. Gallen 3-2 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 36% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC ST. Gallen welcome Lausanne to kybunpark in Super League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 26 January 2025 at 13:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC ST. Gallen have gone 2W 6D 2L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC ST. Gallen's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Lausanne's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Lausanne's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of FC ST. Gallen's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
FC ST. Gallen hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Lausanne and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Aug 2024, ended FC ST. Gallen 4–3 Lausanne — a FC ST. Gallen win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both FC ST. Gallen and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 4.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Lausanne trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC ST. Gallen 63% versus Lausanne 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 51% | Lausanne 54%). Note also that Lausanne surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while FC ST. Gallen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.31 xG and Lausanne 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.037 / defence 0.950 | Lausanne attack 1.094 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.214. Data: built from FC ST. Gallen's last 52 games and Lausanne's last 52.
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 36% | Draw 31% | Lausanne 33%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.79 | Draw 3.26 | Lausanne 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet Lausanne are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (FC ST. Gallen 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Lausanne (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC ST. Gallen 70% (last 10 home games) | Lausanne 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, matchday 20 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 13:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 36% | Draw 31% | Lausanne 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.31 / Lausanne 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.037 / def 0.950 | Lausanne attack 1.094 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lausanne xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne FAQs
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kicked off at 13:15 UK time on Sunday 26 January 2025 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen 3 - 2 Lausanne.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne is a Super League fixture (matchday 20) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 36% chance of winning, Lausanne a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.04x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC ST. Gallen's last 52 games and Lausanne's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
36%
2.79
31%
3.26
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
2.57
1.26
Lausanne xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
9%
11.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.26 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 22W 17D 18L from 57 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 21L across 57 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 1.46 PPG, Lausanne on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 14W 9D 5L from their last 28 home games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 6W 8D 14L across their last 28 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lausanne's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.39 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
FC ST. Gallen (Home) vs Lausanne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne Form FAQs
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 22W 17D 18L in their last 57 games (1.46 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 20W 16D 21L in their last 57 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Lausanne away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.82 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
1
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, Lausanne have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: FC ST. Gallen 1-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC ST. Gallen at 71%, Lausanne at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for FC ST. Gallen and 64% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 61% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 64% of Lausanne's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of FC ST. Gallen's recent matches and 75% of Lausanne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out Lausanne 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Lausanne 3-2 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.31 xG and Lausanne 1.26 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.04 / defence 0.95 against Lausanne attack 1.09 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 36% | Draw 31% | Lausanne 33%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 51%, Lausanne 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.46 PPG, Lausanne 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Lausanne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.