FC Sion 1-1 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sion at 57%, yet in-form Yverdon Sport provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host Yverdon Sport at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 29 March 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Sion stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, FC Sion have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Sion are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Yverdon Sport have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Yverdon Sport away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Yverdon Sport are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from FC Sion's last 10 home games and Yverdon Sport's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, FC Sion have won 1, Yverdon Sport 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2024, ended FC Sion 1–0 Yverdon Sport — a FC Sion win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC Sion in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Yverdon Sport in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sion 61% versus Yverdon Sport 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 54% | Yverdon Sport 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 2.25 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 1.052 / defence 1.112 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.972 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.242. Yverdon Sport's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Sion's projected output up. Data: built from FC Sion's last 28 games and Yverdon Sport's last 61.
Result probabilities: FC Sion 57% | Draw 21% | Yverdon Sport 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 1.74 | Draw 4.75 | Yverdon Sport 4.64. The model has a clear lean to FC Sion (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.25 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Sion at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Yverdon Sport (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.60 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Sion's last 10 home games and Yverdon Sport's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Sion 70% (last 10 home games) | Yverdon Sport 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, matchday 29 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 57% | Draw 21% | Yverdon Sport 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG FC Sion 2.25 / Yverdon Sport 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 1.052 / def 1.112 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.972 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Yverdon Sport xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport FAQs
What time does FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport?
FC Sion 1 - 1 Yverdon Sport.
Where is FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport part of?
FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport is a Super League fixture (matchday 29) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 57% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Sion and Yverdon Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Sion's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Yverdon Sport's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.25. The same calculation in reverse, Yverdon Sport's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Sion's last 28 games and Yverdon Sport's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
57%
1.74
21%
4.75
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
FC Sion xG
Total xG
3.60
1.34
Yverdon Sport xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
11%
9.52
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
2%
44.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are FC Sion and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.34 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Sion come into this having played 28 games, going 9W 7D 12L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Yverdon Sport sit at 1.11 PPG from 28 outings (8W 7D 13L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sion on 1.21 PPG, Yverdon Sport on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Sion's home form reads 6W 5D 2L across their last 13 home games, a 1.77 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — FC Sion are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Yverdon Sport have taken 0.77 points per game from their last 13 away games (2W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Sion are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.07 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Current Season
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
FC Sion (Home) vs Yverdon Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Sion
Current Season
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
❓ FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport Form FAQs
What form are FC Sion and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 8W 7D 13L in their last 28 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or Yverdon Sport away?
FC Sion's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.77 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
FC Sion's record when hosting Yverdon Sport specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC Sion
3
Draws
0
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Yverdon Sport?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Sion have won 1, Yverdon Sport have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2025: Yverdon Sport 1-1 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and Yverdon Sport?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 62%, Yverdon Sport 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Sion) and 46% (Yverdon Sport).
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Sion vs Yverdon Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Sion and Yverdon Sport matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Sion's games and 62% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Sion and Yverdon Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Sion's recent games and 46% of Yverdon Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and Yverdon Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of FC Sion's recent matches and 77% of Yverdon Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion and Yverdon Sport share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion and Yverdon Sport finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 2.25 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.34 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.97 / defence 1.29, drawn from 28/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 57% | Draw 21% | Yverdon Sport 22%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 54%, Yverdon Sport 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.21 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.