FC Sion 0-2 FC Zurich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sion at 38%, yet in-form FC Zurich provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Sion vs FC Zurich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host FC Zurich at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League (matchday 12). Kick-off is Wednesday 30 October 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Sion — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
FC Sion's home record over their last 6 home games: 2W 4D 0L (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Sion are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, FC Zurich have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Zurich's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Zurich — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for FC Sion, 2 for FC Zurich and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended FC Sion 0–1 FC Zurich — a FC Zurich win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Sion trading profile (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC Zurich trading profile (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sion 46% versus FC Zurich 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 46% | FC Zurich 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.36 xG and FC Zurich 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.910 / defence 0.892 | FC Zurich attack 1.136 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.289. Data: built from FC Sion's last 11 games and FC Zurich's last 44.
Result probabilities: FC Sion 38% | Draw 26% | FC Zurich 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.60 | Draw 3.85 | FC Zurich 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Zurich (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Sion 50% (last 6 home games) | FC Zurich 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, matchday 12 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 October 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 38% | Draw 26% | FC Zurich 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG FC Sion 1.36 / FC Zurich 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.910 / def 0.892 | FC Zurich attack 1.136 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.31
FC Zurich xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Sion vs FC Zurich FAQs
What time does FC Sion vs FC Zurich kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Zurich kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 30 October 2024 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
FC Sion 0 - 2 FC Zurich.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Zurich part of?
FC Sion vs FC Zurich is a Super League fixture (matchday 12) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 38% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Sion and FC Zurich will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Sion vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against FC Zurich's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, FC Zurich's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Sion's last 11 games and FC Zurich's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.85
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.67
1.31
FC Zurich xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
9%
10.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Sion vs FC Zurich Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.31 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion's recent record stands at 3W 4D 4L from 11 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five.
FC Zurich, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 2L across 11 games — 1.91 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Zurich by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Sion heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Sion have managed 1W 4D 0L from their last 5 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Zurich's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across their last 5 away games, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Zurich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 1.73 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Zurich in 64%.
Defensively: FC Zurich in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC Zurich
Blended
FC Sion (Home) vs FC Zurich (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Sion
Blended
FC Zurich
Blended
❓ FC Sion vs FC Zurich Form FAQs
What form are FC Sion and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 6W 3D 2L in their last 11 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Zurich away?
FC Zurich's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.40 PPG; FC Zurich away: 2.00 PPG.
Have FC Sion or FC Zurich been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, FC Zurich in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Sion's record when hosting FC Zurich specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Sion
3
Draws
3
FC Zurich
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Sion vs FC Zurich H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Zurich?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Sion have won 4, FC Zurich have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Zurich last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: FC Sion 1-1 FC Zurich.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC Zurich?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 60%, FC Zurich 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (FC Sion) and 60% (FC Zurich).
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC Zurich in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Sion vs FC Zurich Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Sion and FC Zurich matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Sion's games and 60% of FC Zurich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Sion and FC Zurich matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of FC Sion's recent games and 60% of FC Zurich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and FC Zurich matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of FC Sion's recent matches and 80% of FC Zurich's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Zurich cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Zurich beat FC Sion 0-2 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.36 xG and FC Zurich 1.31 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against FC Zurich attack 1.14 / defence 0.96, drawn from 11/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 38% | Draw 26% | FC Zurich 36%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC Zurich win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 46%, FC Zurich 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Zurich's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Zurich arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Zurich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.