FC Luzern 1-3 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Luzern host FC Basel 1893 at swissporarena in Super League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Luzern — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Luzern, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Luzern's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 4L across 7 games at swissporarena this term (0.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Basel 1893 stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 0L across 6 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Basel 1893 — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
FC Luzern in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Luzern 85% and FC Basel 1893 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Luzern 38% | FC Basel 1893 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Luzern 1.10 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Luzern attack 0.824 / defence 1.215 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.002 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.452. Data: 14 FC Luzern games / 13 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Luzern 24% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 53%. Fair-value odds: FC Luzern 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | FC Basel 1893 1.89. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Luzern 71% | FC Basel 1893 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: swissporarena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Luzern 24% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Luzern 1.10 / FC Basel 1893 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: FC Luzern attack 0.824 / def 1.215 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.002 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
FC Luzern xG
Expected Goals
1.77
FC Basel 1893 xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at swissporarena.
What was the final score in FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893?
FC Luzern 1 - 3 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at swissporarena.
What competition is FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC Luzern a 24% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 in?
FC Luzern (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Luzern's attack rating (0.82) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus FC Luzern's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
24%
4.24
23%
4.27
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
FC Luzern xG
Total xG
2.87
1.77
FC Basel 1893 xG
4.24
24%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
4%
24.87
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for FC Luzern and 1.77 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, FC Luzern have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 1W 7D 5L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Luzern is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Basel 1893's form line: 7W 5D 1L from 13 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Basel 1893 are the form team by 1.23 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Luzern.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Luzern have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Luzern are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 2.23 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Luzern have seen both teams score in 85% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Luzern
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC Luzern have gone 1W 7D 5L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 7W 5D 1L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Luzern at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Basel 1893's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Luzern at home: 0.83 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 2.00 PPG.
Have FC Luzern or FC Basel 1893 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Luzern have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, FC Basel 1893 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Luzern's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Luzern
3
Draws
4
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Luzern have won 3, FC Basel 1893 have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when FC Luzern 4-2 FC Basel 1893.
Who has won more matches between FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Luzern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Luzern 67%, FC Basel 1893 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for FC Luzern and 33% for FC Basel 1893.
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Luzern home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Luzern play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Luzern's games and 50% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC Luzern's recent games and 33% of FC Basel 1893's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
FC Luzern have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Luzern.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC Luzern 1-3 at swissporarena, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 1.10 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.77 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 outscored their 1.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 0.82 / defence 1.22 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 24% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 53%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 38%, FC Basel 1893 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Luzern's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Luzern (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.