BSC Young Boys 4-1 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Wankdorf plays host to BSC Young Boys versus FC ST. Gallen in Super League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Tuesday 10 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
BSC Young Boys have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, BSC Young Boys have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion Wankdorf — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — BSC Young Boys are significantly better at Stadion Wankdorf than their overall form suggests.
FC ST. Gallen (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, FC ST. Gallen are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
BSC Young Boys goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
FC ST. Gallen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BSC Young Boys 76% and FC ST. Gallen 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (BSC Young Boys 73% | FC ST. Gallen 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 1.59 xG and FC ST. Gallen 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.144 / defence 1.205 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.225 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.425. FC ST. Gallen have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 2.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 BSC Young Boys games / 33 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 29% | Draw 21% | FC ST. Gallen 50%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 3.45 | Draw 4.76 | FC ST. Gallen 2.00. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BSC Young Boys 90% | FC ST. Gallen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 29% | Draw 21% | FC ST. Gallen 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG BSC Young Boys 1.59 / FC ST. Gallen 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.144 / def 1.205 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.225 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
2.10
FC ST. Gallen xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
BSC Young Boys 4 - 1 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 29% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 50% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen in?
BSC Young Boys (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from BSC Young Boys's attack rating (1.14) and FC ST. Gallen's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC ST. Gallen's attack (1.23x) against BSC Young Boys's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 2.10.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
29%
3.42
21%
4.77
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
3.69
2.10
FC ST. Gallen xG
3.42
29%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
12%
8.19
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
4%
27.99
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 2.10 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
BSC Young Boys come into this having played 33 games, going 14W 11D 8L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.42 PPG from 33 outings (13W 8D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for BSC Young Boys against 1.42 for FC ST. Gallen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
BSC Young Boys's home form reads 9W 5D 2L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.38 points per game from 16 outings (7W 1D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
BSC Young Boys are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.85 scored and 1.70 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: BSC Young Boys have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 67%.
Last 33 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Current Season
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 14W 11D 8L in their last 33 games (1.61 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 13W 8D 12L in their last 33 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 2.00 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC ST. Gallen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 on 28 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BSC Young Boys have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
BSC Young Boys
1
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, BSC Young Boys have won 5, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when BSC Young Boys 1-2 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 81% for BSC Young Boys, 62% for FC ST. Gallen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for BSC Young Boys and 75% for FC ST. Gallen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC ST. Gallen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BSC Young Boys play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of BSC Young Boys's games and 62% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of BSC Young Boys's matches and 75% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
BSC Young Boys have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BSC Young Boys run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC ST. Gallen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat FC ST. Gallen 4-1 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 34, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 1.59 xG and FC ST. Gallen 2.10 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. BSC Young Boys beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC ST. Gallen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.14 / defence 1.21 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.23 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 29% | Draw 21% | FC ST. Gallen 50%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual BSC Young Boys win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 73%, FC ST. Gallen 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BSC Young Boys 1.61 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BSC Young Boys win broke the near-deadlock. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.