Vasteras SK FK 0-4 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Vasteras SK FK take on Helsingborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Helsingborg make the trip to Iver Arena to face Vasteras SK FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 July 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vasteras SK FK have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Iver Arena, Vasteras SK FK have gone 2W 4D 0L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Iver Arena.
Helsingborg (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Helsingborg are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Vasteras SK FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 46% versus Helsingborg 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vasteras SK FK 36% | Helsingborg 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 0.78 xG and Helsingborg 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.899 / defence 1.051 | Helsingborg attack 0.755 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 0.915 / away 1.015. Data: 11 Vasteras SK FK games / 9 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 32% | Draw 36% | Helsingborg 33%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Helsingborg 3.03. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Vasteras SK FK's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 21% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. This conflicts with form data: Vasteras SK FK 50% | Helsingborg 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 32% | Draw 36% | Helsingborg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 30% | xG Vasteras SK FK 0.78 / Helsingborg 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.899 / def 1.051 | Helsingborg attack 0.755 / def 0.950 | league avg home 0.915 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Helsingborg xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Helsingborg kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Helsingborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Helsingborg?
Vasteras SK FK 0 - 4 Helsingborg.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Helsingborg part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 32% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Helsingborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Helsingborg in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Helsingborg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Helsingborg's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (0.76x) against Vasteras SK FK's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 11/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.17
36%
2.82
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
1.59
0.81
Helsingborg xG
3.17
32%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.33
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.5 | 16.5 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.1%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 0.81 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 1.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 5D 3L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Helsingborg sit at 1.73 PPG from 11 outings (5W 4D 2L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 2W 3D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Vasteras SK FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Helsingborg have taken 1.80 points per game from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L).
Attack vs Defence
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.18 scored and 0.82 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Helsingborg in 27%.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Helsingborg in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 3W 5D 3L in their last 11 games (1.27 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Helsingborg away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.80 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 30 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 0-4 on 18 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasteras SK FK have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
2
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Helsingborg?
From 6 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, Helsingborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when Vasteras SK FK 4-0 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Helsingborg?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 60%, Helsingborg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Vasteras SK FK) and 40% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Helsingborg in 60%; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 40% of games; Helsingborg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 40% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 40% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Helsingborg run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Vasteras SK FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Vasteras SK FK 0-4 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 0.78 xG and Helsingborg 0.81 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Helsingborg outscored their 0.81 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against Helsingborg attack 0.76 / defence 0.95, drawn from 11/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 32% | Draw 36% | Helsingborg 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Helsingborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 36%, Helsingborg 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Helsingborg's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Helsingborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.