Vasteras SK FK 0-0 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vasteras SK FK and AFC Eskilstuna meet at Iver Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Monday 12 April 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.12 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 0.851. Data: 0 Vasteras SK FK games / 0 AFC Eskilstuna games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 42% | Draw 31% | AFC Eskilstuna 27%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | AFC Eskilstuna 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Monday 12 Apr 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 42% | Draw 31% | AFC Eskilstuna 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.12 / AFC Eskilstuna 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.142 / away 0.851 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
0.83
AFC Eskilstuna xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 12 April 2021 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Vasteras SK FK 0 - 0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 42% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and AFC Eskilstuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (0.85) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AFC Eskilstuna's attack (0.85x) against Vasteras SK FK's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
42%
2.38
31%
3.24
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
1.95
0.83
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 0.83 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AFC Eskilstuna won 5-2 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasteras SK FK have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AFC Eskilstuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Vasteras SK FK
2
Draws
1
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 1-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and AFC Eskilstuna?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Vasteras SK FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Vasteras SK FK and AFC Eskilstuna drew 0-0 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.12 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.83 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. AFC Eskilstuna landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 42% | Draw 31% | AFC Eskilstuna 27%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.