Vasalund 0-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasalund vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 26 as Vasalund welcome Vasteras SK FK to Skytteholms IP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasalund have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasalund's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Skytteholms IP this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasteras SK FK stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vasalund 0.90 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Vasalund, 1 for Vasteras SK FK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2021, ended 1–2 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vasalund in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasalund 52% versus Vasteras SK FK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasalund 60% | Vasteras SK FK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasalund 1.29 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasalund attack 0.959 / defence 1.336 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.928 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.199. Vasteras SK FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Vasalund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Vasalund games / 25 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasalund 33% | Draw 25% | Vasteras SK FK 42%. Fair-value odds: Vasalund 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Vasteras SK FK 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vasalund 50% | Vasteras SK FK 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasalund vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Skytteholms IP • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasalund 33% | Draw 25% | Vasteras SK FK 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Vasalund 1.29 / Vasteras SK FK 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Vasalund attack 0.959 / def 1.336 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.928 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Vasalund xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Vasteras SK FK xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasalund vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Vasalund vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Skytteholms IP.
What was the final score in Vasalund vs Vasteras SK FK?
Vasalund 0 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Vasalund vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Skytteholms IP.
What competition is Vasalund vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Vasalund vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasalund vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Vasalund a 33% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasalund vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Vasalund and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Vasalund vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (1 meetings): Vasalund 0W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 1W.
What form are Vasalund and Vasteras SK FK in?
Vasalund (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vasalund's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Vasalund's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
33%
3.04
25%
3.96
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Vasalund xG
Total xG
2.78
1.49
Vasteras SK FK xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
7%
13.43
12%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasalund vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Vasalund and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Vasalund and 1.49 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasalund vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasalund's recent record stands at 6W 4D 15L from 25 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 10L across 25 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasalund on 0.88 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vasalund have managed 4W 2D 6L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 3W 3D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Vasalund are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasalund
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasalund and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Vasalund have gone 6W 4D 15L in their last 25 games (0.88 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasalund at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasalund's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasalund at home: 1.17 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasalund and Vasteras SK FK runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vasalund
0
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Vasteras SK FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasalund have won 0, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasalund and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2021, when Vasalund 0-1 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasalund and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasalund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasalund 50%, Vasteras SK FK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vasalund) and 33% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Vasalund have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasalund home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasalund play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vasalund's recent matches and 50% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasalund vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vasalund's recent games and 33% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasalund and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Vasalund have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasteras SK FK edge out Vasalund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Vasalund 0-1 at Skytteholms IP, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasalund 1.29 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.49 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vasalund fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasalund attack 0.96 / defence 1.34 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.93 / defence 1.21, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasalund 33% | Draw 25% | Vasteras SK FK 42%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasalund 60%, Vasteras SK FK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasalund's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasalund 0.88 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Vasalund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.