Utsikten 4-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Utsikten at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utsikten vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees IK brage travel to Bravida Arena to take on Utsikten. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Utsikten stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Utsikten's home record at Bravida Arena: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
IK brage — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IK brage's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Utsikten) versus 0.80 (IK brage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Utsikten, 0 for IK brage and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Utsikten winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Utsikten in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
IK brage in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Utsikten 53% and IK brage 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 50% | IK brage 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.22 xG and IK brage 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 0.989 / defence 1.029 | IK brage attack 0.882 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.163. Data: 36 Utsikten games / 36 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 40% | Draw 28% | IK brage 32%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | IK brage 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utsikten as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Utsikten 50% | IK brage 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 40% | Draw 28% | IK brage 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Utsikten 1.22 / IK brage 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 0.989 / def 1.029 | IK brage attack 0.882 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.06
IK brage xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs IK brage kick off?
Utsikten vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs IK brage?
Utsikten 4 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Utsikten vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs IK brage part of?
Utsikten vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 40% chance of winning, IK brage a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Utsikten and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and IK brage?
Record (2 meetings): Utsikten 2W | Draws 0 | IK brage 0W.
What form are Utsikten and IK brage in?
Utsikten (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. IK brage (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Utsikten's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Utsikten's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.52
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.28
1.06
IK brage xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Utsikten and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.06 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Utsikten's recent record stands at 10W 7D 13L from 30 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 10L across 30 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utsikten on 1.23 PPG, IK brage on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Utsikten have managed 4W 6D 5L from 15 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 6W 5D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Utsikten are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.47 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and IK brage in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while IK brage have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or IK brage away?
IK brage's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.20 PPG; IK brage away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Utsikten and IK brage runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Utsikten won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utsikten's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Utsikten
2
Draws
1
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and IK brage?
From 8 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 5, IK brage have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Utsikten 2-1 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and IK brage?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Utsikten at 60%, IK brage at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Utsikten) and 67% (IK brage). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utsikten have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Utsikten's games and 80% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utsikten vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Utsikten's matches and 67% of IK brage's.
Do Utsikten and IK brage tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, IK brage in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utsikten run riot with a 4-1 hammering of IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat IK brage 4-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.22 xG and IK brage 1.06 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Utsikten beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 0.99 / defence 1.03 against IK brage attack 0.88 / defence 0.89, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 40% | Draw 28% | IK brage 32%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 50%, IK brage 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.23 PPG, IK brage 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.