Umeå FC 1-3 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Umeå FC vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 8 as Umeå FC welcome Utsikten to Umea Energi Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Superettan games this season, Utsikten have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Utsikten's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Umeå FC 0.97 xG and Utsikten 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Umeå FC attack 0.643 / defence 1.227 | Utsikten attack 1.030 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.198. Umeå FC's attack strength of 0.643 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Umeå FC games / 37 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Umeå FC 24% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 50%. Fair-value odds: Umeå FC 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Utsikten 2.00. Utsikten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utsikten are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Umeå FC vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Umea Energi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Umeå FC 24% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Umeå FC 0.97 / Utsikten 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Umeå FC attack 0.643 / def 1.227 | Utsikten attack 1.030 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Umeå FC xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Utsikten xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Umeå FC vs Utsikten kick off?
Umeå FC vs Utsikten kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Umea Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Umeå FC vs Utsikten?
Umeå FC 1 - 3 Utsikten.
Where is Umeå FC vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Umea Energi Arena.
What competition is Umeå FC vs Utsikten part of?
Umeå FC vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Umeå FC vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Umeå FC a 24% chance of winning, Utsikten a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Umeå FC and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Umeå FC vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and Utsikten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Umeå FC and Utsikten in?
Utsikten (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Utsikten away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Umeå FC's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus Umeå FC's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
24%
4.15
26%
3.86
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Umeå FC xG
Total xG
2.48
1.51
Utsikten xG
4.15
24%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
5%
18.84
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Umeå FC vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Umeå FC and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Umeå FC and 1.51 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Umeå FC vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Umeå FC
Pre-Season
Utsikten
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Umeå FC and Utsikten runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Umeå FC
0
Draws
1
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and Utsikten?
From 2 meetings on record, Umeå FC have won 1, Utsikten have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Umeå FC and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Utsikten 1-4 Umeå FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Umeå FC home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Utsikten cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Umeå FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Umeå FC 1-3 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 0.97 xG and Utsikten 1.51 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Utsikten outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.64 / defence 1.23 against Utsikten attack 1.03 / defence 1.12, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 24% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 50%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.