Trelleborg 1-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Landskrona BoIS (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trelleborg face Landskrona BoIS.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Vångavallen to take on Trelleborg. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 August 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 1W 4D 5L at Vångavallen — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Landskrona BoIS — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Landskrona BoIS have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Trelleborg's 1 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2025, ended 2–1 with Trelleborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Landskrona BoIS have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 35% versus Landskrona BoIS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 41% | Landskrona BoIS 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 0.92 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.665 / defence 0.874 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.027 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.281. Trelleborg's attack strength of 0.665 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Trelleborg games / 49 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 28% | Draw 32% | Landskrona BoIS 40%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Landskrona BoIS 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 10% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 25 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 28% | Draw 32% | Landskrona BoIS 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Trelleborg 0.92 / Landskrona BoIS 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.665 / def 0.874 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.027 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Landskrona BoIS xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 25 August 2025 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Trelleborg 1 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 28% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (9 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 3 | Landskrona BoIS 5W.
What form are Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.67x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
28%
3.56
32%
3.15
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.06
1.15
Landskrona BoIS xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
9%
11.25
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 14.6 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.15 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 15W 11D 23L from 49 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 16L across 49 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.14 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 8W 8D 8L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 10W 4D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.49 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 21W 12D 16L in their last 49 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Landskrona BoIS's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.33 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Trelleborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
3
Draws
5
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Landskrona BoIS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Trelleborg 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 38%, Landskrona BoIS 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Trelleborg) and 58% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Trelleborg have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 62% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Trelleborg's recent games and 58% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 0.92 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.15 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.67 / defence 0.87 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 28% | Draw 32% | Landskrona BoIS 40%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Trelleborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 41%, Landskrona BoIS 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.14 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.