Trelleborg 1-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs IK brage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vångavallen plays host to Trelleborg versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Monday 17 June 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trelleborg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Trelleborg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Vångavallen this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
IK brage (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, IK brage have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Trelleborg have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with IK brage managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Trelleborg a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Trelleborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IK brage half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trelleborg 63% and IK brage 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 63% | IK brage 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.24 xG and IK brage 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.032 / defence 1.119 | IK brage attack 0.935 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.029. Data: 41 Trelleborg games / 41 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 40% | Draw 28% | IK brage 32%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | IK brage 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 40% | IK brage 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 17 Jun 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 40% | Draw 28% | IK brage 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Trelleborg 1.24 / IK brage 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.032 / def 1.119 | IK brage attack 0.935 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.08
IK brage xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs IK brage kick off?
Trelleborg vs IK brage kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 17 June 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs IK brage?
Trelleborg 1 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Trelleborg vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs IK brage part of?
Trelleborg vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 40% chance of winning, IK brage a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Trelleborg and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and IK brage?
Record (6 meetings): Trelleborg 4W | Draws 2 | IK brage 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and IK brage in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. IK brage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (1.03) and IK brage's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.94x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.55
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.32
1.08
IK brage xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
9%
10.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.08 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 23W 15D 22L from 60 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 23L across 60 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Trelleborg against 1.38 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 13W 6D 11L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 8W 8D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Trelleborg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.38 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and IK brage in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while IK brage have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or IK brage away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.50 PPG; IK brage away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
IK brage go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trelleborg
2
Draws
3
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and IK brage?
From 10 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 5, IK brage have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when IK brage 2-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and IK brage?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 57%, IK brage 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Trelleborg and 53% for IK brage. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Trelleborg's games and 57% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Trelleborg's matches and 53% of IK brage's.
Do Trelleborg and IK brage tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IK brage in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out IK brage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat IK brage 1-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.24 xG and IK brage 1.08 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IK brage landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.03 / defence 1.12 against IK brage attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 40% | Draw 28% | IK brage 32%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 63%, IK brage 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.40 PPG, IK brage 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.