Trelleborg 2-3 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vångavallen plays host to Trelleborg versus IFK Varnamo in Superettan, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 26 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 7W 2D 1L at Vångavallen — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IFK Varnamo have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Trelleborg, 2.00 for IFK Varnamo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Trelleborg 1W, IFK Varnamo 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2021, ended 1–0 with Trelleborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
IFK Varnamo — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 57% versus IFK Varnamo 24%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Trelleborg 33% | IFK Varnamo 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.38 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.102 / defence 0.841 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.895 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.045 / away 1.112. Data: 21 Trelleborg games / 21 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 50% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 23%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | IFK Varnamo 4.35. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 50% | IFK Varnamo 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 50% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Trelleborg 1.38 / IFK Varnamo 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.102 / def 0.841 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.895 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.045 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.84
IFK Varnamo xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Trelleborg vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Trelleborg 2 - 3 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Trelleborg vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Trelleborg vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 50% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Trelleborg and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and IFK Varnamo?
Record (1 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 0 | IFK Varnamo 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and IFK Varnamo in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (1.10) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (0.90x) against Trelleborg's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
50%
2.02
28%
3.62
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.22
0.84
IFK Varnamo xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
6%
17.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.84 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 10W 7D 4L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo's form line: 12W 4D 5L from 21 games, 1.90 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Trelleborg against 1.90 for IFK Varnamo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 2.30 PPG from 10 outings (7W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Trelleborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IFK Varnamo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Trelleborg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.19 scored and 0.71 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Varnamo in 24%.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 10W 7D 4L in their last 21 games (1.76 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 12W 4D 5L in their last 21 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Trelleborg's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 2.30 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Trelleborg
0
Draws
1
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and IFK Varnamo?
From 2 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 1, IFK Varnamo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2021, when Trelleborg 2-3 IFK Varnamo.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trelleborg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Trelleborg) and 20% (IFK Varnamo) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Trelleborg and 40% for IFK Varnamo.
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 40%; IFK Varnamo in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 20% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Trelleborg's recent games and 40% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Varnamo defy the odds to beat Trelleborg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Trelleborg 2-3 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.38 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.84 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. IFK Varnamo outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.10 / defence 0.84 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 50% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 23%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a IFK Varnamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 33%, IFK Varnamo 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.76 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.