Skövde AIK 0-2 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS meet at Södermalms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Skövde AIK have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Södermalms IP, Skövde AIK have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Södermalms IP. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Skövde AIK are significantly better at Södermalms IP than their overall form suggests.
Orgryte IS (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orgryte IS have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Skövde AIK lead 3W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2024, ended 0–2 with Orgryte IS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Skövde AIK half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 44% versus Orgryte IS 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 50% | Orgryte IS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.08 xG and Orgryte IS 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.655 / defence 0.886 | Orgryte IS attack 1.021 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.132. Skövde AIK's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Skövde AIK games / 46 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 37% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 34%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Orgryte IS 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Skövde AIK are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Skövde AIK 10% | Orgryte IS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 37% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Skövde AIK 1.08 / Orgryte IS 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.655 / def 0.886 | Orgryte IS attack 1.021 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Orgryte IS xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS?
Skövde AIK 0 - 2 Orgryte IS.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS part of?
Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 37% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS?
Record (5 meetings): Skövde AIK 3W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 2W.
What form are Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Skövde AIK's attack at 0.66x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (1.02x) against Skövde AIK's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
37%
2.74
30%
3.34
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.10
1.02
Orgryte IS xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.02 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Skövde AIK come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 10D 23L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.15 PPG from 48 outings (14W 13D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Skövde AIK against 1.15 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Skövde AIK's home form reads 12W 4D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Skövde AIK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.13 points per game from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Skövde AIK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.23 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 15W 10D 23L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 14W 13D 21L in their last 48 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or Orgryte IS away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.74 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Orgryte IS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orgryte IS won 3-0 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Skövde AIK have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Skövde AIK
0
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS?
From 6 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 3, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 4 August 2024, when Skövde AIK 0-2 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Skövde AIK see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 30%, Orgryte IS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Skövde AIK) and 48% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 30%; Skövde AIK have failed to score in 30% of games; Orgryte IS in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 52% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 48% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Skövde AIK 0-2 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.08 xG and Orgryte IS 1.02 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Skövde AIK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Orgryte IS outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.66 / defence 0.89 against Orgryte IS attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 37% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 34%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Orgryte IS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 50%, Orgryte IS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.15 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.