Skövde AIK 1-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Skövde AIK vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees IK brage travel to Södermalms IP to take on Skövde AIK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 July 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Skövde AIK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Skövde AIK at Södermalms IP this season: 4W 1D 2L from 7 home games — 1.86 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Södermalms IP. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IK brage have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Skövde AIK at 1.70 PPG versus IK brage's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Skövde AIK in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
IK brage in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Skövde AIK 53% and IK brage 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 53% | IK brage 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.02 xG and IK brage 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.768 / defence 1.054 | IK brage attack 1.093 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.317. Skövde AIK's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Skövde AIK games / 43 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 25% | Draw 27% | IK brage 48%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | IK brage 2.08. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Skövde AIK 29% | IK brage 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 25% | Draw 27% | IK brage 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Skövde AIK 1.02 / IK brage 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.768 / def 1.054 | IK brage attack 1.093 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: IK brage (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.52
IK brage xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs IK brage kick off?
Skövde AIK vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs IK brage?
Skövde AIK 1 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Skövde AIK vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs IK brage part of?
Skövde AIK vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 25% chance of winning, IK brage a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Skövde AIK and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and IK brage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Skövde AIK and IK brage in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. IK brage (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Skövde AIK's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Skövde AIK's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
25%
4.02
27%
3.72
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.54
1.52
IK brage xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
5%
18.36
17%
5.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.52 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Skövde AIK's recent record stands at 8W 4D 3L from 15 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 2L across 15 games — 2.07 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Skövde AIK on 1.87 PPG, IK brage on 2.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Skövde AIK have managed 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 4W 2D 1L across 7 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 2.00 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 73%.
Defensively: Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and IK brage in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 games (1.87 PPG), while IK brage have gone 9W 4D 2L in their last 15 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or IK brage away?
IK brage's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.86 PPG; IK brage away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, IK brage in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Skövde AIK and IK brage runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Skövde AIK's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Skövde AIK
3
Draws
2
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and IK brage?
From 6 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 1, IK brage have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2024, when IK brage 2-0 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
IK brage see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 29%, IK brage 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Skövde AIK) and 71% (IK brage). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Skövde AIK have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 29% of Skövde AIK's games and 86% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Skövde AIK vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Skövde AIK's matches and 71% of IK brage's.
Do Skövde AIK and IK brage tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, IK brage in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Skövde AIK and IK brage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK and IK brage finished level at 1-1 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.02 xG and IK brage 1.52 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against IK brage attack 1.09 / defence 0.90, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 25% | Draw 27% | IK brage 48%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 53%, IK brage 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
IK brage's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.87 PPG, IK brage 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.