Sandviken 0-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 19 as Sandviken welcome Landskrona BoIS to Jernvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sandviken — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandviken's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Jernvallen this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sandviken at 1.30 PPG versus Landskrona BoIS's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sandviken, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sandviken in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 54% versus Landskrona BoIS 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 62% | Landskrona BoIS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.59 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 1.020 / defence 1.303 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.084 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.292. Data: 48 Sandviken games / 48 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 33% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 43%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Landskrona BoIS 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandviken 50% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Jernvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 33% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Sandviken 1.59 / Landskrona BoIS 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 1.020 / def 1.303 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.084 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Landskrona BoIS xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Sandviken 0 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 33% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (3 meetings): Sandviken 1W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS in?
Sandviken (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandviken's attack at 1.02x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Sandviken's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
33%
3.00
24%
4.21
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sandviken xG
Total xG
3.42
1.82
Landskrona BoIS xG
3.00
33%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
5%
18.57
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.82 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Sandviken have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 19W 10D 19L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 20W 12D 16L from 48 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandviken on 1.40 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sandviken have posted 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (12W 3D 8L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 9W 4D 10L from 23 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandviken are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.50 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 19W 10D 19L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 20W 12D 16L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Sandviken's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 1.70 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Landskrona BoIS have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Landskrona BoIS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandviken's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Sandviken
0
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS?
From 5 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Sandviken 0-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 48%, Landskrona BoIS 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Sandviken and 61% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandviken keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Sandviken have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Sandviken's games and 65% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sandviken's matches and 61% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Sandviken 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Sandviken 0-1 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.59 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.82 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sandviken fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Landskrona BoIS landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.02 / defence 1.30 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.08 / defence 1.13, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 33% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 43%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 62%, Landskrona BoIS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.40 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.