Ostersunds FK 1-3 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs IK brage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees IK brage travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 May 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ostersunds FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
IK brage — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, IK brage have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. IK brage's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
IK brage trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 43% versus IK brage 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | IK brage 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.32 xG and IK brage 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.833 / defence 1.190 | IK brage attack 1.163 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.378. Data: 6 Ostersunds FK games / 36 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 26% | Draw 23% | IK brage 51%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | IK brage 1.96. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 40% | IK brage 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 26% | Draw 23% | IK brage 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.32 / IK brage 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.833 / def 1.190 | IK brage attack 1.163 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: IK brage (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.91
IK brage xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs IK brage kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 3 IK brage.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs IK brage part of?
Ostersunds FK vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 26% chance of winning, IK brage a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ostersunds FK and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IK brage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and IK brage in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. IK brage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
26%
3.80
23%
4.41
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.23
1.91
IK brage xG
3.80
26%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
15%
6.74
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
4%
25.59
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.91 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 8W 9D 13L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. Ostersunds FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
IK brage's form line: 10W 9D 11L from 30 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.10 PPG, IK brage on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 0.67 PPG from 15 outings (2W 4D 9L). That actually lags their 1.10 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, IK brage have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.33 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and IK brage in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 games (1.10 PPG), while IK brage have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or IK brage away?
IK brage's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.67 PPG; IK brage away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, IK brage in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
4
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 4, IK brage have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when IK brage 2-4 Ostersunds FK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 47%, IK brage 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ostersunds FK) and 60% (IK brage). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 47% of games; IK brage in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Ostersunds FK's games and 67% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 60% of IK brage's.
Do Ostersunds FK and IK brage tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, IK brage in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IK brage cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Ostersunds FK 1-3 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.32 xG and IK brage 1.91 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IK brage outscored their 1.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.83 / defence 1.19 against IK brage attack 1.16 / defence 1.00, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 26% | Draw 23% | IK brage 51%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, IK brage 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
IK brage's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.10 PPG, IK brage 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.