Ostersunds FK 0-2 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ostersunds FK at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees AFC Eskilstuna travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jämtkraft Arena, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Eskilstuna stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ostersunds FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ostersunds FK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ostersunds FK, 1 for AFC Eskilstuna and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2022, ended 1–4 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
AFC Eskilstuna trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 46% versus AFC Eskilstuna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 49% | AFC Eskilstuna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.54 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.871 / defence 1.075 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.904 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.270. AFC Eskilstuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Ostersunds FK games / 55 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 44% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 30%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | AFC Eskilstuna 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 60% | AFC Eskilstuna 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 44% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.54 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.871 / def 1.075 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.904 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.23
AFC Eskilstuna xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 2 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 44% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 0 | AFC Eskilstuna 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ostersunds FK's attack rating (0.87) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.84
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.77
1.23
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
6%
15.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.23 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 8W 13D 34L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna's form line: 21W 10D 24L from 55 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AFC Eskilstuna are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 0.93 PPG from 27 outings (6W 7D 14L).
On the road, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 6W 5D 16L from 27 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.51 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 13D 34L in their last 55 games (0.67 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 21W 10D 24L in their last 55 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.93 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2022, when AFC Eskilstuna won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
2
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2023, when Ostersunds FK 1-1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 52%, AFC Eskilstuna 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Ostersunds FK) and 59% (AFC Eskilstuna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 33% of games; AFC Eskilstuna in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Ostersunds FK's games and 59% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 59% of AFC Eskilstuna's.
Do Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Eskilstuna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Ostersunds FK 0-2 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.54 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.23 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.90 / defence 1.22, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 44% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 30%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual AFC Eskilstuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 49%, AFC Eskilstuna 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Eskilstuna arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.