Osters IF 0-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 37%, yet in-form Trelleborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Osters IF vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osters IF host Trelleborg at Visma Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 10 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osters IF — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 2L across 7 games at Visma Arena this term (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Trelleborg are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Osters IF trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Trelleborg trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 29% versus Trelleborg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osters IF 21% | Trelleborg 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.20 xG and Trelleborg 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.815 / defence 0.978 | Trelleborg attack 1.102 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.088. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Osters IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Osters IF games / 14 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 37% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 36%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Trelleborg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trelleborg (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 43% | Trelleborg 71%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 37% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Osters IF 1.20 / Trelleborg 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.815 / def 0.978 | Trelleborg attack 1.102 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Trelleborg xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Trelleborg kick off?
Osters IF vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 10 August 2021 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Osters IF 0 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is Osters IF vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Trelleborg part of?
Osters IF vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 37% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Osters IF and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Trelleborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osters IF and Trelleborg in?
Osters IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Trelleborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 0.81x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
37%
2.73
28%
3.59
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.37
1.17
Trelleborg xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.17 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 5W 3D 6L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg's form line: 7W 4D 3L from 14 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trelleborg are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Osters IF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.50 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Trelleborg in 64%.
Defensively: Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Trelleborg away?
Osters IF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.57 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Osters IF go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Osters IF won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Osters IF
1
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 5, Trelleborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2024, when Osters IF 4-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Trelleborg?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 43%, Trelleborg 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Osters IF) and 57% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Osters IF have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Osters IF's games and 71% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Osters IF's recent games and 57% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Osters IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF and Trelleborg finished level at 0-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.20 xG and Trelleborg 1.17 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Osters IF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Trelleborg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Trelleborg attack 1.10 / defence 1.32, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 37% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 36%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 21%, Trelleborg 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trelleborg's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.