Osters IF 0-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Osters IF (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Osters IF face Orebro SK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 2 as Osters IF welcome Orebro SK to Visma Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Osters IF have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osters IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Visma Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Orebro SK — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Orebro SK's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Osters IF are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Osters IF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Orebro SK in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Osters IF, 1 for Orebro SK and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Osters IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Osters IF trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Orebro SK trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osters IF 57% and Orebro SK 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 50% | Orebro SK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.56 xG and Orebro SK 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.877 / defence 1.150 | Orebro SK attack 1.041 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.228. Data: 1 Osters IF games / 31 Orebro SK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Osters IF 40% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 36%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Orebro SK 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 60% | Orebro SK 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 40% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Osters IF 1.56 / Orebro SK 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.877 / def 1.150 | Orebro SK attack 1.041 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Orebro SK xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Osters IF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Osters IF 0 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Osters IF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Orebro SK part of?
Osters IF vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 40% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Osters IF and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Orebro SK?
Record (6 meetings): Osters IF 3W | Draws 2 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Osters IF and Orebro SK in?
Osters IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osters IF's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
40%
2.51
24%
4.14
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Osters IF xG
Total xG
3.03
1.47
Orebro SK xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.47 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 15W 9D 6L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. Osters IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Orebro SK's form line: 5W 10D 15L from 30 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Osters IF are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 2.07 PPG from 15 outings (9W 4D 2L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 1W 4D 10L from 15 away games — 0.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Pre-Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 15W 9D 6L in their last 30 games (1.80 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 5W 10D 15L in their last 30 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Orebro SK away?
Osters IF's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 2.07 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.47 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Osters IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Osters IF
3
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Orebro SK?
From 7 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 3, Orebro SK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Osters IF 0-0 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Orebro SK?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Osters IF at 53%, Orebro SK at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Osters IF and 67% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Osters IF's games and 80% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Osters IF's matches and 67% of Orebro SK's.
Do Osters IF and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Osters IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 2, as Osters IF and Orebro SK drew 0-0 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.56 xG and Orebro SK 1.47 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Osters IF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Orebro SK landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Orebro SK attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 40% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 36%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 50%, Orebro SK 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.