Osters IF 1-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Landskrona BoIS make the trip to Visma Arena to face Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 April 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.19 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.970 / defence 1.150 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 0.844. Data: 1 Osters IF games / 1 Landskrona BoIS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Osters IF 44% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 26%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Landskrona BoIS 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 44% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Osters IF 1.19 / Landskrona BoIS 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.970 / def 1.150 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.065 / away 0.844 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Landskrona BoIS xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 April 2021 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Osters IF 1 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 44% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (0.97) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.85x) against Osters IF's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
44%
2.25
30%
3.33
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.01
0.82
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
8%
12.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 11.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.82 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Pre-Season
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osters IF won 1-4 on 2 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osters IF have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Osters IF
5
Draws
0
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, Landskrona BoIS have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 2-2 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 2, as Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.19 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.82 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 44% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 26%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.