Osters IF 4-0 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Visma Arena plays host to Osters IF versus Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 29 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Visma Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jonkopings Sodra (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Osters IF, 1.50 for Jonkopings Sodra — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Osters IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jonkopings Sodra in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Osters IF lead 3W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2023, ended 3–2 with Osters IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Jonkopings Sodra goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osters IF 67% and Jonkopings Sodra 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 60% | Jonkopings Sodra 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.71 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.080 / defence 1.058 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.193 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.115. Data: 45 Osters IF games / 45 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 45% | Draw 24% | Jonkopings Sodra 31%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Jonkopings Sodra 3.23. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 60% | Jonkopings Sodra 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 45% | Draw 24% | Jonkopings Sodra 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Osters IF 1.71 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.080 / def 1.058 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.193 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Jonkopings Sodra xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Osters IF 4 - 0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 45% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (5 meetings): Osters IF 3W | Draws 0 | Jonkopings Sodra 2W.
What form are Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Osters IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 1.08x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jonkopings Sodra's attack (1.19x) against Osters IF's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
45%
2.24
24%
4.19
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Osters IF xG
Total xG
3.12
1.41
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
6%
17.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.41 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osters IF come into this having played 45 games, going 20W 11D 14L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jonkopings Sodra sit at 1.33 PPG from 45 outings (15W 15D 15L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Osters IF against 1.33 for Jonkopings Sodra. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Osters IF's home form reads 11W 4D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Jonkopings Sodra have taken 1.18 points per game from 22 outings (5W 11D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osters IF are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.56 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Jonkopings Sodra in 73%.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 20W 11D 14L in their last 45 games (1.58 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 15W 15D 15L in their last 45 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Osters IF's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.68 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Osters IF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osters IF won 4-0 on 29 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osters IF have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jonkopings Sodra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Osters IF
0
Draws
2
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2023, when Osters IF 4-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Osters IF, 73% for Jonkopings Sodra — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Osters IF) and 54% (Jonkopings Sodra). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Jonkopings Sodra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Osters IF's games and 73% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Osters IF's matches and 54% of Jonkopings Sodra's.
Do Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osters IF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Jonkopings Sodra 4-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.71 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.41 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Osters IF beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jonkopings Sodra landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.08 / defence 1.06 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.19 / defence 1.11, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 45% | Draw 24% | Jonkopings Sodra 31%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 60%, Jonkopings Sodra 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.58 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.