Osters IF 0-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs IK brage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees IK brage travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 August 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Osters IF have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Visma Arena this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IK brage have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Osters IF are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Osters IF, 3 for IK brage and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2024, ended 0–1 with IK brage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Osters IF in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
IK brage in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 63% versus IK brage 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 63% | IK brage 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.52 xG and IK brage 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.150 / defence 0.663 | IK brage attack 0.745 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.143. Osters IF's defence rating of 0.663 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Osters IF games / 46 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 61% | Draw 26% | IK brage 14%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | IK brage 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — IK brage's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 30% | IK brage 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 61% | Draw 26% | IK brage 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 34% | xG Osters IF 1.52 / IK brage 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.150 / def 0.663 | IK brage attack 0.745 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.56
IK brage xG
34%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs IK brage kick off?
Osters IF vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs IK brage?
Osters IF 0 - 2 IK brage.
Where is Osters IF vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs IK brage part of?
Osters IF vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 61% chance of winning, IK brage a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Osters IF and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and IK brage?
Record (7 meetings): Osters IF 3W | Draws 1 | IK brage 3W.
What form are Osters IF and IK brage in?
Osters IF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. IK brage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 1.15x the league average against IK brage's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.4%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.90
14%
7.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.08
0.56
IK brage xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
7.33
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.97
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
35%
2.90
3%
33.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 10.7 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Osters IF and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.56 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs IK brage?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 24W 11D 11L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage's form line: 19W 9D 18L from 46 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osters IF on 1.80 PPG, IK brage on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 2.04 PPG from 23 outings (14W 5D 4L).
On the road, IK brage have gone 4W 5D 14L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IK brage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osters IF are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.28 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and IK brage in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 24W 11D 11L in their last 46 games (1.80 PPG), while IK brage have gone 19W 9D 18L in their last 46 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or IK brage away?
Osters IF's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 2.04 PPG; IK brage away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osters IF and IK brage runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when Osters IF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Osters IF
1
Draws
4
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, IK brage have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Osters IF 3-2 IK brage.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
IK brage see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 44%, IK brage 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Osters IF) and 35% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; IK brage in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Osters IF's recent matches and 39% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Osters IF's recent games and 35% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and IK brage tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, IK brage in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IK brage cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Osters IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Osters IF 0-2 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.52 xG and IK brage 0.56 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Osters IF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. IK brage outscored their 0.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.15 / defence 0.66 against IK brage attack 0.74 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 61% | Draw 26% | IK brage 14%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a IK brage win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 63%, IK brage 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
IK brage's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.80 PPG, IK brage 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.