Osters IF 0-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees GIF Sundsvall travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 11 May 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.32 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.052 / defence 1.188 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.908 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 0.822. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Osters IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Osters IF games / 4 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 43% | Draw 35% | GIF Sundsvall 22%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.33 | Draw 2.86 | GIF Sundsvall 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 43% | Draw 35% | GIF Sundsvall 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Osters IF 1.32 / GIF Sundsvall 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.052 / def 1.188 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.908 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.018 / away 0.822 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.89
GIF Sundsvall xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 11 May 2021 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Osters IF 0 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 43% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osters IF's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
43%
2.31
35%
2.85
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.21
0.89
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
6%
17.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.89 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 15 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osters IF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Osters IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Osters IF
1
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 7 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 5, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 15 June 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 0-4 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and GIF Sundsvall?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Osters IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Osters IF 0-2 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.32 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.89 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Osters IF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.05 / defence 1.19 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.91 / defence 1.23, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 43% | Draw 35% | GIF Sundsvall 22%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a GIF Sundsvall win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.