Orgryte IS 2-2 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Osters IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Orgryte IS's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Osters IF have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Osters IF's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Orgryte IS, 2 for Osters IF and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 63% versus Osters IF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 52% | Osters IF 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.44 xG and Osters IF 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.058 / defence 1.116 | Osters IF attack 1.143 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.139. Data: 35 Orgryte IS games / 35 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 37% | Draw 25% | Osters IF 38%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Osters IF 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osters IF at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 50% | Osters IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 37% | Draw 25% | Osters IF 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Orgryte IS 1.44 / Osters IF 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.058 / def 1.116 | Osters IF attack 1.143 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Osters IF xG
59%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Osters IF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Osters IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 8 May 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Osters IF?
Orgryte IS 2 - 2 Osters IF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Osters IF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 37% chance of winning, Osters IF a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Orgryte IS and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Osters IF?
Record (4 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 2 | Osters IF 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Osters IF in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Osters IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (1.14x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
37%
2.67
25%
4.03
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.90
1.45
Osters IF xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
9%
11.43
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.45 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 18W 25D 17L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Osters IF's form line: 25W 19D 16L from 60 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.57 for Osters IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (8W 15D 7L).
On the road, Osters IF have gone 10W 10D 10L from 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.33 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Osters IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 18W 25D 17L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 25W 19D 16L in their last 60 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Osters IF away?
Osters IF's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.30 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Osters IF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Orgryte IS
4
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Osters IF?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 0, Osters IF have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Osters IF 1-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 60%, Osters IF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Orgryte IS) and 40% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 27% of games; Osters IF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Orgryte IS's games and 50% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 40% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Osters IF tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and Osters IF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 6, as Orgryte IS and Osters IF drew 2-2 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.44 xG and Osters IF 1.45 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.06 / defence 1.12 against Osters IF attack 1.14 / defence 0.97, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 37% | Draw 25% | Osters IF 38%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 52%, Osters IF 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.32 PPG, Osters IF 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.