Orgryte IS 3-2 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 3W 7D 0L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Orgryte IS. A 0.50 PPG lead over Landskrona BoIS (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orgryte IS lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 63% versus Landskrona BoIS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 44% | Landskrona BoIS 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.43 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.013 / defence 1.184 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.694 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.236. Landskrona BoIS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Orgryte IS games / 27 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 46% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 26%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Landskrona BoIS 3.85. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Orgryte IS 70% | Landskrona BoIS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 46% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Orgryte IS 1.43 / Landskrona BoIS 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.013 / def 1.184 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.694 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Landskrona BoIS xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Orgryte IS 3 - 2 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 46% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.01x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.69x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
46%
2.15
27%
3.69
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.45
1.01
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
6%
15.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.01 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 7W 13D 7L from 27 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 10L across 27 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.52 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 3W 8D 2L from 13 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 2W 3D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.33 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 7W 13D 7L in their last 27 games (1.26 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 12W 5D 10L in their last 27 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.31 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 30 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 4, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-0 Landskrona BoIS.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 62%, Landskrona BoIS 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Orgryte IS) and 54% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 31% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Orgryte IS's games and 62% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orgryte IS edge out Landskrona BoIS 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Landskrona BoIS 3-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.43 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.01 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.01 / defence 1.18 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.69 / defence 1.29, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 46% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 26%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 44%, Landskrona BoIS 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.26 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.