Orgryte IS 1-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees GIF Sundsvall travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 June 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
GIF Sundsvall's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Orgryte IS 1.60 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Orgryte IS have won 2, GIF Sundsvall 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 55% versus GIF Sundsvall 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | GIF Sundsvall 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.54 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.033 / defence 1.199 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.783 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.020. Data: 41 Orgryte IS games / 41 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 51% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 23%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | GIF Sundsvall 4.35. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Orgryte IS 60% | GIF Sundsvall 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jun 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 51% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Orgryte IS 1.54 / GIF Sundsvall 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.033 / def 1.199 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.783 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 14 June 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Orgryte IS 1 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 51% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (4 meetings): Orgryte IS 2W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.90
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.50
0.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
5%
19.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.96 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 19W 18D 23L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 13W 10D 37L from 60 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Orgryte IS are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIF Sundsvall.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.17 PPG from 30 outings (8W 11D 11L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 4W 5D 21L from 30 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.08 scored and 2.22 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 13W 10D 37L in their last 60 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.17 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
4
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 57%, GIF Sundsvall 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Orgryte IS) and 57% (GIF Sundsvall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 47% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Orgryte IS's matches and 57% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall finished level at 1-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.54 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.96 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.03 / defence 1.20 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.78 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 51% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 23%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 53%, GIF Sundsvall 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.