Orebro SK 1-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Trelleborg make the trip to Behrn Arena to face Orebro SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 24 June 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Orebro SK's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Orebro SK's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Behrn Arena this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Behrn Arena. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Orebro SK are significantly better at Behrn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Trelleborg (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.60 for Trelleborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orebro SK lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Orebro SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Trelleborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 47% versus Trelleborg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 53% | Trelleborg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.33 xG and Trelleborg 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.069 / defence 1.113 | Trelleborg attack 0.852 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.024. Data: 42 Orebro SK games / 42 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 45% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 27%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Trelleborg 3.70. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 40% | Trelleborg 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 24 Jun 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 45% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Orebro SK 1.33 / Trelleborg 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.069 / def 1.113 | Trelleborg attack 0.852 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Trelleborg xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Trelleborg kick off?
Orebro SK vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 June 2024 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Trelleborg?
Orebro SK 1 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Orebro SK vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Trelleborg part of?
Orebro SK vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 45% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Orebro SK and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Trelleborg?
Record (4 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 3 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and Trelleborg in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (1.07) and Trelleborg's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.85x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.60
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.30
0.97
Trelleborg xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
7%
13.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.97 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 18W 17D 25L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Trelleborg's form line: 23W 15D 22L from 60 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.40 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.53 PPG from 30 outings (12W 10D 8L).
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 10W 9D 11L from 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.43 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Trelleborg away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.53 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Orebro SK
6
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 0, Trelleborg have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Trelleborg 1-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 40%, Trelleborg 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Orebro SK) and 60% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Orebro SK's games and 70% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Orebro SK's recent games and 60% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK and Trelleborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Orebro SK and Trelleborg drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.33 xG and Trelleborg 0.97 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.07 / defence 1.11 against Trelleborg attack 0.85 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 45% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 27%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 53%, Trelleborg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.18 PPG, Trelleborg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.