Orebro SK 1-1 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandviken at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orebro SK vs Sandviken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orebro SK and Sandviken meet at Behrn Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 22 June 2026 at 17:05 UTC.
Current Form
Orebro SK's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sandviken (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Sandviken have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Orebro SK 1W, Sandviken 3W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Sandviken winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sandviken half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 65% versus Sandviken 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 53% | Sandviken 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.06 xG and Sandviken 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.747 / defence 1.039 | Sandviken attack 0.911 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.431. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Orebro SK games / 42 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 29% | Draw 27% | Sandviken 44%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Sandviken 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandviken as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandviken if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 70% | Sandviken 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 22 Jun 2026, 17:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 29% | Draw 27% | Sandviken 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Orebro SK 1.06 / Sandviken 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.747 / def 1.039 | Sandviken attack 0.911 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Sandviken xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Sandviken kick off?
Orebro SK vs Sandviken kicked off at 17:05 on Monday 22 June 2026 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Sandviken?
Orebro SK 1 - 1 Sandviken.
Where is Orebro SK vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Sandviken part of?
Orebro SK vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 29% chance of winning, Sandviken a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Orebro SK and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Sandviken?
Record (4 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 0 | Sandviken 3W.
What form are Orebro SK and Sandviken in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Sandviken (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (0.75) and Sandviken's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sandviken's attack (0.91x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
29%
3.42
27%
3.68
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.41
1.35
Sandviken xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
8%
13.26
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.35 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 15W 19D 26L from 60 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Sandviken, meanwhile, have gone 24W 12D 24L across 60 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.40 for Sandviken. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 12W 10D 8L from 30 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sandviken's away record stands at 8W 8D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.42 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
Sandviken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 15W 19D 26L in their last 60 games (1.07 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 24W 12D 24L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Sandviken away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.53 PPG; Sandviken away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sandviken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
1
Draws
3
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Sandviken?
From 5 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Sandviken have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Orebro SK 1-1 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Sandviken?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 57%, Sandviken 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Orebro SK) and 67% (Sandviken). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 30% of games; Sandviken in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Sandviken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Orebro SK's games and 53% of Sandviken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Orebro SK's matches and 67% of Sandviken's.
Do Orebro SK and Sandviken tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK and Sandviken share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK and Sandviken finished level at 1-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.06 xG and Sandviken 1.35 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.75 / defence 1.04 against Sandviken attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 29% | Draw 27% | Sandviken 44%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 53%, Sandviken 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Sandviken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.07 PPG, Sandviken 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandviken (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.