Orebro SK 1-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Landskrona BoIS's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Orebro SK) versus 1.20 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Orebro SK, 4 for Landskrona BoIS and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 64% versus Landskrona BoIS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 53% | Landskrona BoIS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.77 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.997 / defence 1.012 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.957 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Orebro SK games / 30 Landskrona BoIS games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 51% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 24%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 4.17. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 70% | Landskrona BoIS 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 51% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Orebro SK 1.77 / Landskrona BoIS 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.997 / def 1.012 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.957 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Landskrona BoIS xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Orebro SK 1 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 51% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (8 meetings): Orebro SK 2W | Draws 2 | Landskrona BoIS 4W.
What form are Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orebro SK's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
51%
1.98
25%
3.96
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.93
1.17
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
4%
24.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.17 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 15W 19D 28L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 25W 16D 21L from 62 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.48 PPG from 31 outings (12W 10D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 6D 14L from 31 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.40 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 15W 19D 28L in their last 62 games (1.03 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 25W 16D 21L in their last 62 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.48 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Orebro SK won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Orebro SK
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Orebro SK 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 55%, Landskrona BoIS 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Orebro SK) and 55% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 32% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 55% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Orebro SK's recent games and 55% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orebro SK edge out Landskrona BoIS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.77 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.17 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.00 / defence 1.01 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 51% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 24%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 53%, Landskrona BoIS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Orebro SK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orebro SK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.