Norrby IF 2-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Norrby IF at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Ostersunds FK travel to Borås Arena to take on Norrby IF. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 June 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norrby IF stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Norrby IF's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Borås Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ostersunds FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Norrby IF are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Norrby IF trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 53% versus Ostersunds FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 43% | Ostersunds FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.27 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.654 / defence 0.964 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.662 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.362. Norrby IF's attack strength of 0.654 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ostersunds FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Norrby IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Norrby IF games / 10 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 44% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 24%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Ostersunds FK 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Norrby IF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norrby IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Norrby IF 60% | Ostersunds FK 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Jun 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 44% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Norrby IF 1.27 / Ostersunds FK 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.654 / def 0.964 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.662 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Ostersunds FK xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 28 June 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Norrby IF 2 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 44% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Norrby IF's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
44%
2.25
31%
3.19
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.14
0.87
Ostersunds FK xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
7%
14.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Norrby IF and 0.87 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Norrby IF's recent record stands at 13W 9D 8L from 30 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Ostersunds FK, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 13L across 30 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. Ostersunds FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Norrby IF by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ostersunds FK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Norrby IF have managed 6W 5D 4L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ostersunds FK's away record stands at 6W 5D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.10 PPG overall record — Ostersunds FK travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Norrby IF are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.90 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 13W 9D 8L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Norrby IF's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.53 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Norrby IF's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
2
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Norrby IF 2-2 Ostersunds FK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 53%, Ostersunds FK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Norrby IF) and 47% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Norrby IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 40%; Norrby IF have failed to score in 27% of games; Ostersunds FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Norrby IF's recent matches and 40% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Norrby IF's recent games and 47% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Norrby IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat Ostersunds FK 2-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.27 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.87 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ostersunds FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.65 / defence 0.96 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.66 / defence 1.34, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 44% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 24%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 43%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Norrby IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.