Norrby IF 0-2 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to Norrby IF versus Orebro SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Monday 18 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Norrby IF have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Norrby IF at Borås Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Orebro SK's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Orebro SK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orebro SK have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Norrby IF against 1.80 for Orebro SK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Norrby IF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 53% versus Orebro SK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 43% | Orebro SK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.77 xG and Orebro SK 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.913 / defence 0.877 | Orebro SK attack 0.706 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.365. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Norrby IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Norrby IF games / 2 Orebro SK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 59% | Draw 23% | Orebro SK 18%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Orebro SK 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Norrby IF (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norrby IF at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Norrby IF 60% | Orebro SK 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 59% | Draw 23% | Orebro SK 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Norrby IF 1.77 / Orebro SK 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.913 / def 0.877 | Orebro SK attack 0.706 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Orebro SK xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Norrby IF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Orebro SK?
Norrby IF 0 - 2 Orebro SK.
Where is Norrby IF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Orebro SK part of?
Norrby IF vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 59% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Norrby IF and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Norrby IF and Orebro SK in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Orebro SK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Norrby IF's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.71x) against Norrby IF's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.33
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.62
0.85
Orebro SK xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
3%
33.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Norrby IF and 0.85 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Orebro SK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Norrby IF come into this having played 30 games, going 13W 9D 8L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (12W 6D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. Orebro SK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Norrby IF against 1.40 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Norrby IF's home form reads 6W 5D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 1.00 points per game from 15 outings (4W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norrby IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Norrby IF are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.23 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Current Season
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 13W 9D 8L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Orebro SK away?
Norrby IF's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.53 PPG; Orebro SK away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Norrby IF
2
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Orebro SK?
From 3 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 0, Orebro SK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Orebro SK 1-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and Orebro SK?
Orebro SK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 53%, Orebro SK 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Norrby IF) and 53% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Norrby IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Norrby IF have failed to score in 27% of games; Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Norrby IF's recent matches and 47% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norrby IF vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Norrby IF's recent games and 53% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Norrby IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Norrby IF 0-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.77 xG and Orebro SK 0.85 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Norrby IF fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Orebro SK outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.91 / defence 0.88 against Orebro SK attack 0.71 / defence 1.28, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 59% | Draw 23% | Orebro SK 18%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Orebro SK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 43%, Orebro SK 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norrby IF 1.60 PPG, Orebro SK 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Norrby IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.