Landskrona BoIS 0-1 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK meet at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 3 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 5W 3D 2L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Skövde AIK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Skövde AIK have posted 4W 3D 2L from 9 away outings — 1.67 PPG. Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Landskrona BoIS, 1.30 for Skövde AIK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Landskrona BoIS register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Skövde AIK in 78%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 0W, Skövde AIK 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Skövde AIK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Skövde AIK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 67% and Skövde AIK 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 56% | Skövde AIK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.81 xG and Skövde AIK 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.104 / defence 1.112 | Skövde AIK attack 1.037 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.292. Data: 46 Landskrona BoIS games / 16 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 26% | Skövde AIK 30%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Skövde AIK 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 90% | Skövde AIK 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 26% | Skövde AIK 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.81 / Skövde AIK 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.104 / def 1.112 | Skövde AIK attack 1.037 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Skövde AIK xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 3 August 2022 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Landskrona BoIS 0 - 1 Skövde AIK.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 44% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK?
Record (1 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 0W | Draws 0 | Skövde AIK 1W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Skövde AIK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.10) and Skövde AIK's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Skövde AIK's attack (1.04x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.90
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
3.30
1.49
Skövde AIK xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
5%
20.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.49 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 6D 6L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Skövde AIK sit at 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.67 for Skövde AIK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 4W 3D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Skövde AIK have taken 1.75 points per game from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.44 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Skövde AIK in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Skövde AIK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 games (1.33 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 8W 6D 4L in their last 18 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Skövde AIK away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.88 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Landskrona BoIS won 4-1 on 4 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Skövde AIK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
3
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK?
From 6 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Skövde AIK have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2024, when Landskrona BoIS 4-1 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK?
Skövde AIK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Landskrona BoIS, 88% for Skövde AIK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Landskrona BoIS and 75% for Skövde AIK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Skövde AIK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 88% of Skövde AIK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 75% of Skövde AIK's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Skövde AIK defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat Landskrona BoIS 0-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.81 xG and Skövde AIK 1.49 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.10 / defence 1.11 against Skövde AIK attack 1.04 / defence 1.13, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 26% | Skövde AIK 30%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Skövde AIK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 56%, Skövde AIK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.33 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Skövde AIK win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.