Landskrona BoIS 2-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Landskrona BoIS welcome GIF Sundsvall to Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan (matchday 25). Kick-off is Tuesday 3 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, GIF Sundsvall have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Landskrona BoIS have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Landskrona BoIS, 2 for GIF Sundsvall and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Landskrona BoIS 0–2 GIF Sundsvall — a GIF Sundsvall win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 63% and GIF Sundsvall 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 56% | GIF Sundsvall 61%). Note also that GIF Sundsvall surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Landskrona BoIS recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 2.07 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.021 / defence 0.959 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.827 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.296. GIF Sundsvall's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Landskrona BoIS's projected output up. Data: built from Landskrona BoIS's last 54 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 24.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Draw 24% | GIF Sundsvall 16%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.67 | Draw 4.22 | GIF Sundsvall 6.06. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (60%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Landskrona BoIS's last 10 home games and GIF Sundsvall's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Landskrona BoIS 70% (last 10 home games) | GIF Sundsvall 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, matchday 25 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Draw 24% | GIF Sundsvall 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Landskrona BoIS 2.07 / GIF Sundsvall 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.021 / def 0.959 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.827 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.03
GIF Sundsvall xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall FAQs
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 3 October 2023 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall is a Superettan fixture (matchday 25) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 60% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.02) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Landskrona BoIS's last 54 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.22
16%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
3.10
1.03
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
6.06
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
2%
48.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.03 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 21W 15D 18L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 11W 8D 35L from 54 games, 0.76 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIF Sundsvall.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 1.85 PPG from their last 27 home games (14W 8D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 4D 20L from their last 27 away games — 0.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.09 scored and 2.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Landskrona BoIS (Home) vs GIF Sundsvall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall Form FAQs
What form are Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 21W 15D 18L in their last 54 games (1.44 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 11W 8D 35L in their last 54 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.85 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 15 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Sep 2026, when Landskrona BoIS won Landskrona BoIS 4-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Landskrona BoIS have won 5, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 September 2026: Landskrona BoIS 4-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 74%, GIF Sundsvall 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Landskrona BoIS) and 56% (GIF Sundsvall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 48% of GIF Sundsvall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 56% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 85% of GIF Sundsvall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 25, as Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall drew 2-2 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 2.07 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.03 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.83 / defence 1.25, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 60% | Draw 24% | GIF Sundsvall 16%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 56%, GIF Sundsvall 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.