Landskrona BoIS 1-0 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Landskrona BoIS take on AFC Eskilstuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees AFC Eskilstuna travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.00 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.009 / defence 1.061 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.648 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.033 / away 0.839. Data: 4 Landskrona BoIS games / 4 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 41% | Draw 42% | AFC Eskilstuna 17%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.44 | Draw 2.38 | AFC Eskilstuna 5.88. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.58. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.58 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — AFC Eskilstuna's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 41% and away win at 17% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.58 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 41% | Draw 42% | AFC Eskilstuna 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 31% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.00 / AFC Eskilstuna 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.009 / def 1.061 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.648 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.033 / away 0.839 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.58
AFC Eskilstuna xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 8 May 2021 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 41% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 17% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.01) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (19.1%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
41%
2.42
42%
2.41
17%
5.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
20.6%
Draw
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
1.58
0.58
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.41
42%
Draw
5.84
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
6%
15.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.6 | 11.9 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.7 | 11.9 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.1%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.58 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 1.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
3
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, AFC Eskilstuna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 0-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and AFC Eskilstuna?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out AFC Eskilstuna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat AFC Eskilstuna 1-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.00 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.58 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.65 / defence 0.96, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 41% | Draw 42% | AFC Eskilstuna 17%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 41%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.