Jonkopings Sodra 1-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Orebro SK travel to Stadsparksvallen to take on Jonkopings Sodra. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jonkopings Sodra — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jonkopings Sodra have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadsparksvallen — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Orebro SK's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jonkopings Sodra at 1.60 PPG versus Orebro SK's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Jonkopings Sodra, 1 for Orebro SK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 59% versus Orebro SK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 51% | Orebro SK 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.18 xG and Orebro SK 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.909 / defence 1.181 | Orebro SK attack 0.697 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.273. Data: 59 Jonkopings Sodra games / 29 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 37% | Draw 32% | Orebro SK 31%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Orebro SK 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jonkopings Sodra 60% | Orebro SK 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 37% | Draw 32% | Orebro SK 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.18 / Orebro SK 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.909 / def 1.181 | Orebro SK attack 0.697 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Orebro SK xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK?
Jonkopings Sodra 1 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 37% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK?
Record (1 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 0W | Draws 0 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 0.91x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
37%
2.69
32%
3.11
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.23
1.05
Orebro SK xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.05 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jonkopings Sodra's recent record stands at 19W 16D 24L from 59 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Orebro SK, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 33L across 59 games — 0.92 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jonkopings Sodra on 1.24 PPG, Orebro SK on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jonkopings Sodra have managed 11W 7D 11L from 29 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orebro SK's away record stands at 6W 5D 18L across 29 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 0.93 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 19W 16D 24L in their last 59 games (1.24 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 14W 12D 33L in their last 59 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Orebro SK away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.38 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2023, when Orebro SK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Jonkopings Sodra
2
Draws
2
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, Orebro SK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2023, when Orebro SK 3-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK?
Orebro SK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 62%, Orebro SK 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 52% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 31% of games; Orebro SK in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent matches and 41% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Jonkopings Sodra's matches and 52% of Orebro SK's.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra and Orebro SK finished level at 1-1 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.18 xG and Orebro SK 1.05 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.91 / defence 1.18 against Orebro SK attack 0.70 / defence 0.89, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 37% | Draw 32% | Orebro SK 31%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 51%, Orebro SK 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.24 PPG, Orebro SK 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.