IK brage 1-2 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 40%, yet in-form Vasteras SK FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this IK brage vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IK brage and Vasteras SK FK meet at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IK brage have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 2W 3D 5L at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vasteras SK FK (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vasteras SK FK away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Vasteras SK FK arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IK brage lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IK brage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Vasteras SK FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IK brage 62% and Vasteras SK FK 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 60% | Vasteras SK FK 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.43 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.901 / defence 1.013 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.016 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.219. Data: 30 IK brage games / 30 Vasteras SK FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IK brage 40% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 32%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Vasteras SK FK 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 60% | Vasteras SK FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 40% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG IK brage 1.43 / Vasteras SK FK 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.901 / def 1.013 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.016 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: IK brage (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Vasteras SK FK xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
IK brage vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Vasteras SK FK?
IK brage 1 - 2 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is IK brage vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
IK brage vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 40% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IK brage and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (4 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 2 | Vasteras SK FK 1W.
What form are IK brage and Vasteras SK FK in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IK brage's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (1.02x) against IK brage's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.57
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.68
1.25
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
8%
12.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are IK brage and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for IK brage and 1.25 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, IK brage have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 21W 18D 21L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 18W 22D 20L from 60 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for IK brage against 1.27 for Vasteras SK FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IK brage have posted 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (11W 8D 11L).
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 8W 9D 13L from 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
IK brage are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.43 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Vasteras SK FK in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 21W 18D 21L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 18W 22D 20L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
IK brage's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.37 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IK brage
4
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Vasteras SK FK?
From 8 meetings on record, IK brage have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when IK brage 3-1 Vasteras SK FK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 50%, Vasteras SK FK 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (IK brage) and 40% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IK brage have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IK brage's recent matches and 53% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of IK brage's recent games and 40% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat IK brage 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat IK brage 1-2 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.43 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.25 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 40% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 32%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 60%, Vasteras SK FK 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.35 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.