IK brage 1-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IK brage host Landskrona BoIS at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, IK brage have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, IK brage have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — IK brage are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Landskrona BoIS away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, IK brage have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of IK brage's games and 70% of Landskrona BoIS's (from IK brage's last 10 home games and Landskrona BoIS's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for IK brage, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended IK brage 0–3 Landskrona BoIS — a Landskrona BoIS win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 57% versus Landskrona BoIS 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 60% | Landskrona BoIS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.36 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.073 / defence 0.920 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.961 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 0.882. Data: built from IK brage's last 33 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 33.
Result probabilities: IK brage 51% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 21%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.98 | Draw 3.58 | Landskrona BoIS 4.66. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (IK brage's last 10 home games and Landskrona BoIS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: IK brage 60% (last 10 home games) | Landskrona BoIS 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, matchday 4 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 51% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG IK brage 1.36 / Landskrona BoIS 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.073 / def 0.920 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.961 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.346 / away 0.882 • Poisson stance: IK brage (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Landskrona BoIS xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS FAQs
What time does IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
IK brage 1 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS is a Superettan fixture (matchday 4) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 51% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both IK brage and Landskrona BoIS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IK brage's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IK brage's last 33 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
51%
1.98
28%
3.58
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.15
0.78
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
5%
18.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for IK brage and 0.78 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 14D 23L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.38 PPG from 60 outings (22W 17D 21L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.38 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IK brage's home form reads 15W 6D 9L across their last 30 home games, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.33 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
IK brage (Home) vs Landskrona BoIS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IK brage
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS Form FAQs
What form are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 17D 21L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
IK brage's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.70 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Aug 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won Landskrona BoIS 3-0 IK brage.
IK brage's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IK brage
5
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IK brage have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: IK brage 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 57%, Landskrona BoIS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for IK brage and 57% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IK brage and Landskrona BoIS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of IK brage's recent matches and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of IK brage's matches and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do IK brage and Landskrona BoIS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of IK brage's recent matches and 67% of Landskrona BoIS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IK brage and Landskrona BoIS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 4, as IK brage and Landskrona BoIS drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.36 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.78 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.07 / defence 0.92 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 51% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 21%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 60%, Landskrona BoIS 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.38 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.