IK brage 0-0 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IK brage host IFK Norrkoping at Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IK brage — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IK brage at Domnarvsvallen this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Norrkoping stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. IFK Norrkoping haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
IFK Norrkoping away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IK brage at 1.20 PPG versus IFK Norrkoping's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
IFK Norrkoping in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IK brage 67% and IFK Norrkoping 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 67% | IFK Norrkoping 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.84 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.243 / defence 1.482 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.857 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.367. Data: 37 IK brage games / 7 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 41% | Draw 22% | IFK Norrkoping 37%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.44 | Draw 4.55 | IFK Norrkoping 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 90% | IFK Norrkoping 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 41% | Draw 22% | IFK Norrkoping 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG IK brage 1.84 / IFK Norrkoping 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.243 / def 1.482 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.857 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: IK brage (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.74
IFK Norrkoping xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
IK brage vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs IFK Norrkoping?
IK brage 0 - 0 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is IK brage vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
IK brage vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 41% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 37% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both IK brage and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and IFK Norrkoping?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IK brage and IFK Norrkoping in?
IK brage (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IK brage's attack at 1.24x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
41%
2.43
22%
4.55
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.58
1.74
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
18%
5.68
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
7%
13.78
6%
17.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are IK brage and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for IK brage and 1.74 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, IK brage have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 11W 8D 11L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 9W 7D 14L from 30 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. IFK Norrkoping haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.37 PPG, IFK Norrkoping on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IK brage have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 3W 5D 7L from 15 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.20 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; IFK Norrkoping in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 11W 8D 11L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IK brage's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.20 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
IK brage
1
Draws
1
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and IFK Norrkoping?
From 2 meetings on record, IK brage have won 0, IFK Norrkoping have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when IFK Norrkoping 3-0 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — IK brage at 80%, IFK Norrkoping at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for IK brage and 67% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of IK brage's games and 80% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of IK brage's matches and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do IK brage and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at IK brage's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 8, as IK brage and IFK Norrkoping drew 0-0 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.84 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.74 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IK brage fell 1.8 short of their projected output. IFK Norrkoping landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.24 / defence 1.48 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 41% | Draw 22% | IFK Norrkoping 37%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 67%, IFK Norrkoping 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.37 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.