IFK Varnamo 1-0 Vasalund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Varnamo at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Varnamo vs Vasalund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 13 as IFK Varnamo welcome Vasalund to Finnvedsvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 July 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IFK Varnamo have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 1L across 6 games at Finnvedsvallen this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Finnvedsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — IFK Varnamo are significantly better at Finnvedsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasalund stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasalund away from home this season: 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
IFK Varnamo carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Vasalund in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 18% versus Vasalund 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 27% | Vasalund 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.64 xG and Vasalund 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.969 / defence 0.855 | Vasalund attack 1.028 / defence 1.800. League average goals — home 0.943 / away 1.120. Vasalund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.800 — this is suppressing IFK Varnamo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 IFK Varnamo games / 11 Vasalund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 53% | Draw 25% | Vasalund 23%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Vasalund 4.35. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Varnamo at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IFK Varnamo 17% | Vasalund 83%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Vasalund | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 53% | Draw 25% | Vasalund 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.64 / Vasalund 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.969 / def 0.855 | Vasalund attack 1.028 / def 1.800 | league avg home 0.943 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Vasalund xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Vasalund kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Vasalund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Vasalund?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 0 Vasalund.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Vasalund being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Vasalund part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Vasalund is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 53% chance of winning, Vasalund a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Vasalund?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Vasalund will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Vasalund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Vasalund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Vasalund in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Vasalund (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Vasalund's defensive record (1.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Vasalund's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.07
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.63
0.98
Vasalund xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
4%
22.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Vasalund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Vasalund expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.98 for Vasalund, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Vasalund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 7W 2D 2L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasalund's form line: 3W 1D 7L from 11 games, 0.91 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IFK Varnamo are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vasalund.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 2.50 PPG from 6 outings (5W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.09 PPG overall — IFK Varnamo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vasalund have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasalund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 0.55 conceded per game recently; Vasalund are on 1.27 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Varnamo have seen both teams score in 18% of their recent games.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Vasalund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Vasalund in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 games (2.09 PPG), while Vasalund have gone 3W 1D 7L in their last 11 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Vasalund away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 2.50 PPG; Vasalund away: 0.50 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Vasalund been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their recent games, Vasalund in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and Vasalund runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
0
Vasalund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Vasalund?
From 2 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 1, Vasalund have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Vasalund last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2021, when Vasalund 1-1 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Vasalund?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Vasalund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 17%, Vasalund 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (IFK Varnamo) and 100% (Vasalund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Vasalund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Vasalund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 83% of Vasalund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Vasalund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 17% of IFK Varnamo's matches and 100% of Vasalund's.
Do IFK Varnamo and Vasalund tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vasalund in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Varnamo edge out Vasalund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Vasalund 1-0 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.64 xG and Vasalund 0.98 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vasalund landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.97 / defence 0.85 against Vasalund attack 1.03 / defence 1.80, drawn from 12/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 53% | Draw 25% | Vasalund 23%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 27%, Vasalund 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasalund's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Varnamo arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Vasalund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.