Helsingborg 2-2 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK meet at Olympia in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Helsingborg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Helsingborg's home record at Olympia: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympia. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Helsingborg are significantly better at Olympia than their overall form suggests.
Vasteras SK FK's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Vasteras SK FK's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.60 for Vasteras SK FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Helsingborg lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2021, ended 4–0 with Helsingborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Helsingborg — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 41% versus Vasteras SK FK 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 52% | Vasteras SK FK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.21 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 1.045 / defence 0.965 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.804 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.233. Data: 29 Helsingborg games / 29 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 41% | Draw 31% | Vasteras SK FK 28%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Vasteras SK FK 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Helsingborg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 40% | Vasteras SK FK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 41% | Draw 31% | Vasteras SK FK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Helsingborg 1.21 / Vasteras SK FK 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 1.045 / def 0.965 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.804 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Vasteras SK FK xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Helsingborg 2 - 2 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 41% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (1 meetings): Helsingborg 1W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 0W.
What form are Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 1.04x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (0.80x) against Helsingborg's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
41%
2.45
31%
3.20
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.17
0.96
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.96 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 13W 8D 8L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 8W 11D 10L from 29 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Helsingborg are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vasteras SK FK.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.64 PPG from 14 outings (7W 2D 5L).
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 4W 4D 6L from 14 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Helsingborg are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.17 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 13W 8D 8L in their last 29 games (1.62 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 8W 11D 10L in their last 29 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.64 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 30 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 0-4 on 18 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Helsingborg
1
Draws
3
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when Vasteras SK FK 4-0 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 36%, Vasteras SK FK 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Helsingborg) and 29% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK in 36%; Helsingborg have failed to score in 29% of games; Vasteras SK FK in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 43% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Helsingborg's recent games and 29% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympia, Regular Season - 30, as Helsingborg and Vasteras SK FK drew 2-2 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.21 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.96 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.80 / defence 1.05, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 41% | Draw 31% | Vasteras SK FK 28%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 52%, Vasteras SK FK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Helsingborg arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Helsingborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.