Helsingborg 3-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helsingborg at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus GIF Sundsvall in Superettan (matchday 21). Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Helsingborg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Helsingborg at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
GIF Sundsvall's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GIF Sundsvall's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Helsingborg's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Helsingborg, 0 for GIF Sundsvall and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 May 2023, ended Helsingborg 1–1 GIF Sundsvall — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Helsingborg half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 54% versus GIF Sundsvall 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 48% | GIF Sundsvall 62%). Note also that GIF Sundsvall surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Helsingborg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.37 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.750 / defence 1.312 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.875 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.176. Helsingborg's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.37. GIF Sundsvall's defence rating of 1.238 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Helsingborg's projected output up. Helsingborg's defence rating of 1.312 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing GIF Sundsvall's projected output up. Data: built from Helsingborg's last 20 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 20.
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 36% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 35%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.77 | Draw 3.49 | GIF Sundsvall 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Helsingborg's last 10 home games and GIF Sundsvall's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Helsingborg 50% (last 10 home games) | GIF Sundsvall 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, matchday 21 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 36% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Helsingborg 1.37 / GIF Sundsvall 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.750 / def 1.312 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.875 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
GIF Sundsvall xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall FAQs
What time does Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Helsingborg 3 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall is a Superettan fixture (matchday 21) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 36% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Helsingborg's attack rating (0.75) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.88x) against Helsingborg's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Helsingborg's last 20 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
36%
2.77
29%
3.49
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.72
1.35
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.35 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 0.70 PPG on a 8W 11D 31L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 10W 7D 33L from 50 games, 0.74 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.70 PPG for Helsingborg against 0.74 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 0.68 PPG from their last 25 home games (4W 5D 16L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 4D 18L from their last 25 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Helsingborg are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.08 scored and 2.34 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Helsingborg (Home) vs GIF Sundsvall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Helsingborg
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall Form FAQs
What form are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 8W 11D 31L in their last 50 games (0.70 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 10W 7D 33L in their last 50 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Helsingborg's home record (0.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 0.68 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall, the earliest from July 2022. They cover more than one competition — Allsvenskan, Superettan. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won Helsingborg 5-2 GIF Sundsvall on 21 Jun 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Helsingborg
3
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Helsingborg have won 6, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 48%, GIF Sundsvall 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Helsingborg) and 56% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 40% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 48% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Helsingborg's recent games and 56% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 84% of GIF Sundsvall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Helsingborg edge out GIF Sundsvall 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat GIF Sundsvall 3-2 at Olympia, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.37 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.35 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Helsingborg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.75 / defence 1.31 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.88 / defence 1.24, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 36% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 35%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 48%, GIF Sundsvall 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 0.70 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.