GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Varbergs BoIS FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as GIF Sundsvall face Varbergs BoIS FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Superettan appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Varbergs BoIS FC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GIF Sundsvall have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Varbergs BoIS FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 50% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 50% | Varbergs BoIS FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.14 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.773 / defence 1.223 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.005 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.325. GIF Sundsvall's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 GIF Sundsvall games / 52 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 26% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 48%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.08. Varbergs BoIS FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Varbergs BoIS FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 26% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.14 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.773 / def 1.223 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.005 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at NP3 Arena.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 26% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (7 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC 5W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (1.00x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
26%
3.91
27%
3.76
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.76
1.63
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
5%
19.92
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.63 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 16W 8D 28L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 22W 15D 15L from 52 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Varbergs BoIS FC are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIF Sundsvall.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1.04 PPG from 26 outings (7W 6D 13L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 8W 9D 9L from 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.62 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC in 67%.
Last 52 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 16W 8D 28L in their last 52 games (1.08 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 22W 15D 15L in their last 52 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.04 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Varbergs BoIS FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 3-0 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 7 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for GIF Sundsvall, 73% for Varbergs BoIS FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for GIF Sundsvall and 69% for Varbergs BoIS FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 73% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 69% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.