GIF Sundsvall 2-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg meet at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 July 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall at NP3 Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Trelleborg (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Trelleborg arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: GIF Sundsvall 2W, Trelleborg 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2024, ended 2–3 with Trelleborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 49% versus Trelleborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 47% | Trelleborg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.15 xG and Trelleborg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.867 / defence 1.279 | Trelleborg attack 0.940 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.128. Data: 45 GIF Sundsvall games / 45 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 31% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 41%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Trelleborg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 70% | Trelleborg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 31% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.15 / Trelleborg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.867 / def 1.279 | Trelleborg attack 0.940 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Trelleborg xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 31% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg?
Record (5 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 2W | Draws 1 | Trelleborg 2W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.87) and Trelleborg's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.94x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
31%
3.20
28%
3.63
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.50
1.35
Trelleborg xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
8%
12.41
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.35 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 11D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.31 PPG from 45 outings (15W 14D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.31 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 7W 7D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.18 points per game from 22 outings (6W 8D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.24 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 11W 11D 23L in their last 45 games (0.98 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 15W 14D 16L in their last 45 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Trelleborg away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.27 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
3
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 4, Trelleborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Trelleborg 2-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 64%, Trelleborg 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (GIF Sundsvall) and 46% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 64% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 46% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Trelleborg tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Trelleborg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Trelleborg 2-1 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.15 xG and Trelleborg 1.35 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.87 / defence 1.28 against Trelleborg attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 31% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 41%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 47%, Trelleborg 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 0.98 PPG, Trelleborg 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.