GIF Sundsvall 2-0 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Skövde AIK travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 May 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. GIF Sundsvall haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 6W 3D 1L at NP3 Arena — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NP3 Arena.
Across all Superettan games this season, Skövde AIK have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Skövde AIK away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
GIF Sundsvall are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Skövde AIK in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 53% versus Skövde AIK 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 40% | Skövde AIK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.55 xG and Skövde AIK 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.875 / defence 1.388 | Skövde AIK attack 0.768 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.125. Skövde AIK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 GIF Sundsvall games / 38 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 45% | Draw 26% | Skövde AIK 29%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Skövde AIK 3.45. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 40% | Skövde AIK 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 45% | Draw 26% | Skövde AIK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.55 / Skövde AIK 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.875 / def 1.388 | Skövde AIK attack 0.768 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Skövde AIK xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 0 Skövde AIK.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 45% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Skövde AIK (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.88) and Skövde AIK's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Skövde AIK's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.91
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.75
1.20
Skövde AIK xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.20 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 8D 7L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. GIF Sundsvall haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Skövde AIK sit at 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (11W 11D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.77 PPG, Skövde AIK on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 9W 4D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Skövde AIK have taken 1.47 points per game from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.33 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Skövde AIK in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Skövde AIK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 games (1.77 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 11W 11D 8L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Skövde AIK away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 2.07 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 1.47 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
GIF Sundsvall have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Skövde AIK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
1
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK?
From 4 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, Skövde AIK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2024, when Skövde AIK 0-2 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 47%, Skövde AIK 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (GIF Sundsvall) and 60% (Skövde AIK).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Skövde AIK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Skövde AIK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 60% of Skövde AIK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 60% of Skövde AIK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Skövde AIK 2-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.55 xG and Skövde AIK 1.20 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Skövde AIK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.88 / defence 1.39 against Skövde AIK attack 0.77 / defence 1.25, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 45% | Draw 26% | Skövde AIK 29%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 40%, Skövde AIK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.77 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.