GIF Sundsvall 1-3 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Orebro SK make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 June 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

GIF Sundsvall (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

GIF Sundsvall's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at NP3 Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Orebro SK have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Superettan this season, Orebro SK have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.20 for Orebro SK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GIF Sundsvall have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Orebro SK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIF Sundsvall lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with GIF Sundsvall winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 57% versus Orebro SK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 60% | Orebro SK 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.29 xG and Orebro SK 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.889 / defence 1.176 | Orebro SK attack 0.786 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.045. Data: 43 GIF Sundsvall games / 43 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 44% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 28%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Orebro SK 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: GIF Sundsvall 70% | Orebro SK 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights